TheInterviewTimes.com | February 28, 2026 | 01:33 PM IST | New Delhi
BRICS de-dollarization gains momentum as China, India, and Brazil cut $144.6B in US Treasuries in 2025. ING warns dollar weakness may push EUR/USD to 1.22 by 2026.
Key Highlights
- $144.6 billion in US Treasuries sold by China, India, and Brazil in 2025
- China cut $75.5 billion, India $36.2 billion, Brazil $32.9 billion
- ING forecasts EUR/USD at 1.22 by end-2026 amid dollar weakness
- US Dollar Index fell nearly 10% in 2025, steepest since 2017
- Gold accumulation among BRICS could exceed Treasury holdings by 2027
The pace of BRICS de-dollarization intensified in 2025 as three major emerging economies, China, India, and Brazil, collectively reduced their US Treasury holdings by $144.6 billion over 12 months.
The data, released by the US Department of the Treasury under its Treasury International Capital reporting system on February 17, 2026, confirms steady diversification away from dollar-denominated reserves.
The shift reflects a broader structural recalibration in global reserve management.
China, India, Brazil Lead the Treasury Exit
China led the selloff under the broader BRICS de-dollarization strategy.
Beijing reduced holdings from $759 billion in December 2024 to $683.5 billion in December 2025, marking a $75.5 billion decline, or about 10 percent year over year.
India followed with a sharper relative cut.
New Delhi trimmed $36.2 billion, an 18 percent annual decline, partly linked to foreign exchange interventions aimed at stabilizing the rupee during volatility.
Brazil shed $32.9 billion, roughly 16 percent, as it redirected reserves toward alternative assets, including gold.
The reductions accelerated late in the year. In October 2025 alone, the trio offloaded $28.8 billion, signaling synchronized reserve repositioning amid geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.
ING Warns Dollar Safe Haven Status Is Fading
Dutch banking major ING Group described the trend as persistent rather than abrupt.
In its February 2026 FX outlook, ING noted that the US Dollar Index declined nearly 10 percent in 2025, its steepest annual fall since 2017.
The bank forecasts EUR/USD could rise to 1.22 by end-2026, compared with current levels near 1.18.
Key drivers include:
- Anticipation that the Federal Reserve will implement two interest rate cuts in 2026
- Slower US economic growth
- Improving eurozone fundamentals
- Political uncertainty ahead of US midterm elections
- Elevated US fiscal deficits and debt servicing costs
ING does not foresee a disorderly dollar collapse. However, it warns that sustained BRICS de-dollarization could gradually erode the dollar’s traditional safe haven premium.
Structural Shift or Tactical Adjustment
Analysts caution against labeling the move as sudden abandonment of the dollar.
Private global investors continue allocating capital toward US assets, and dollar-based trade settlements remain dominant worldwide.
However, BRICS de-dollarization reflects a longer-term strategy built around:
- Expanding gold reserves
- Increasing local currency trade settlement
- Reducing exposure to sanctions risk
- Diversifying away from US fiscal vulnerabilities
Projections suggest that by late 2027, combined BRICS gold reserves could exceed their US Treasury holdings. This would mark a symbolic milestone in the evolving global currency landscape.
What It Means for Global Markets
If BRICS de-dollarization continues at the current pace, several implications emerge.
First, sustained foreign selling may place upward pressure on US Treasury yields, increasing borrowing costs.
Second, incremental reserve diversification could strengthen the euro, yuan, and regional currency blocs.
Third, any perceived weakening of Federal Reserve independence could trigger sharper dollar adjustments.
Investors are closely watching upcoming Treasury International Capital releases, including January 2026 data due March 18, for confirmation of whether the trend is accelerating.
For now, cyclical macro pressures dominate. Structurally, BRICS de-dollarization appears increasingly embedded in global reserve strategy.
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