TheInterviewTimes.com | February 22, 2026 | 04:40 PM IST | New Delhi
Vitalik Bets Against Alien Disclosure: Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin wagers $148,000 against US alien confirmation by 2027 on Polymarket amid Trump UFO declassification push. Odds drop to 14% as hype fades. Latest updates on Obama factor and prediction markets.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, made headlines by betting $148,000 on Polymarket that the United States will not confirm extraterrestrial life before 2027. This move came right after President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he would direct federal agencies to identify and release files on UFOs, UAPs, and alien life. The bet highlights Buterin’s strategy of profiting from hype-driven market swings.
Trump Triggers UFO Frenzy
On February 19, 2026, President Trump posted on Truth Social directing the Secretary of War and other agencies to begin releasing government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs). Trump made the announcement amid public interest sparked by former President Barack Obama’s recent podcast comments. The process could take weeks or months, as no specific timeline for public release was given.
Trump accused Obama of revealing classified information by saying aliens are real, though he added he does not know if they exist himself. This exchange amplified speculation, leading to immediate spikes in prediction market activity.
Obama Sparks the Debate
Former President Barack Obama appeared on Brian Tyler Cohen’s podcast around February 15, 2026, stating that aliens are real based on statistical probabilities from the universe’s vastness, but he saw no evidence during his presidency. Obama later clarified on Instagram that he dismissed Area 51 conspiracy theories.
Trump responded by claiming Obama shared classified details and offered to declassify files to help him. These remarks fueled viral discussions and directly preceded Trump’s directive.
Buterin’s Contrarian Wager
Buterin placed his $148,000 bet on the “No” side of Polymarket’s “Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” market shortly after Trump’s post. At peak hype, “Yes” odds hit 28% before settling to 14% by February 20. The contract resolves “Yes” only on an official statement from the president, a Cabinet member, Joint Chiefs, or federal agency confirming extraterrestrial life or technology.
This aligns with Buterin’s “anti-insanity mode” strategy, where he bets against irrational hype, earning $70,000 in 2025 on wagers like Trump winning a Nobel Peace Prize. Polymarket volume for this market neared $3.8 million.
Prediction Markets React and Cool
Trump’s announcement caused “Yes” odds on Kalshi to jump from 17% to 26-28%. Polymarket saw similar surges from 11-12% to 24-28%, with over $5 million in total volume across platforms.
By February 22, 2026, odds cooled to 14% “Yes” on Polymarket (86% “No”), reflecting a return to skepticism. Kalshi’s contract mirrors this, requiring definitive government confirmation by January 1, 2027. No further releases have occurred yet, keeping markets volatile but leaning against disclosure.
Buterin’s Betting Playbook
Buterin described his approach in a January 2026 Foresight News interview as targeting markets distorted by emotion, avoiding extremes like USD collapse. His $148,000 position could yield about $16,000 profit if “No” resolves, exemplifying bets against crowd frenzy.
This incident underscores prediction markets’ role in pricing uncertainty, with 2025 volumes hitting $28 billion. Traders view it as behavioral finance in action.
Top News: Greenland Ice Sheet Churns Like Boiling Pasta Amid Sixfold Surge in Extreme Melt Events
