The Indus Waters Treaty: Overview, Significance, and Suspension Following the April 22, 2025, Terrorist Attack

The Indus Waters Treaty: Overview, Significance, and Suspension Following the April 22, 2025, Terrorist Attack

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Introduction

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed on September 19, 1960, between India and Pakistan, is a landmark water-sharing agreement brokered by the World Bank. It governs the allocation and management of the Indus River system, comprising six rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. The treaty has been a cornerstone of water resource cooperation between the two nations, surviving multiple wars and geopolitical tensions. However, on April 23, 2025, India announced the suspension of the treaty in response to a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which killed 26 people, mostly tourists. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the treaty, its key provisions, historical significance, challenges, and the implications of its suspension.

Historical Context

The Indus River system, vital for agriculture, drinking water, and hydropower in both India and Pakistan, became a point of contention following the 1947 partition of British India. The partition drew the boundary across the Indus basin, positioning India as the upper riparian state and Pakistan as the lower riparian state. This led to disputes over water rights, as Pakistan depended heavily on the rivers flowing through India. After years of negotiations starting in 1952, the IWT was signed by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan, with the World Bank facilitating the agreement.

Key Provisions of the Indus Waters Treaty

1. Division of Rivers

The treaty divides the six rivers of the Indus system into two groups:

  • Eastern Rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej are allocated to India for unrestricted use, including irrigation, hydropower, and storage.
  • Western Rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab are allocated primarily to Pakistan. India is permitted limited use of these rivers for domestic purposes, non-consumptive uses (e.g., navigation), and specific agricultural and run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects, subject to strict design and operational restrictions to ensure minimal impact on Pakistan’s water flow.

Approximately 80% of the Indus system’s water flow (around 135 million acre-feet annually) is allocated to Pakistan through the western rivers, while India has full control over the remaining 20% from the eastern rivers.

2. Water Usage and Restrictions

  • Pakistan’s Rights: Pakistan has primary control over the western rivers, ensuring water for its agriculture, particularly in Punjab province, which relies heavily on the Indus system.
  • India’s Rights: India can construct run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on the western rivers (e.g., Salal, Baglihar, and Kishanganga dams) but is restricted from building storage dams that could significantly reduce water flow to Pakistan. The treaty imposes design and operational constraints to protect Pakistan’s water security.
  • Data Sharing: Both countries are required to exchange data on water flows, project plans, and river conditions to maintain transparency.

3. Permanent Indus Commission

The treaty established the Permanent Indus Commission, a bilateral body with representatives from both nations. The commission’s responsibilities include:

  • Monitoring treaty implementation.
  • Facilitating data exchange on water flows and projects.
  • Resolving disputes through regular meetings and technical discussions.
    The commission has functioned continuously, even during the India-Pakistan wars of 1965, 1971, and 1999, demonstrating the treaty’s resilience.

4. Dispute Resolution Mechanism

The IWT outlines a three-tiered dispute resolution process:

  • Bilateral Talks: Disputes are first addressed through the Permanent Indus Commission.
  • Neutral Expert: If unresolved, a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank can review technical disputes.
  • Court of Arbitration: As a last resort, disputes can be referred to an international Court of Arbitration.
    The World Bank’s role is limited to facilitating this process, and it is not a party to the treaty.

Significance of the Treaty

The IWT is widely regarded as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements globally due to its durability and ability to withstand decades of India-Pakistan hostility. Key aspects of its significance include:

  • Humanitarian Impact: The treaty ensures water access for millions in both countries, supporting agriculture, drinking water, and economic stability.
  • Conflict Prevention: By providing a structured framework for water sharing, the treaty has prevented water-related conflicts despite geopolitical tensions.
  • Resilience: The treaty’s mechanisms, particularly the Permanent Indus Commission, have maintained cooperation even during wars and major terror attacks, such as the 2001 Indian Parliament attack and the 2019 Pulwama attack.

Challenges and Tensions

Despite its success, the IWT has faced several challenges:

  • Pakistan’s Objections: Pakistan has frequently raised concerns over India’s hydroelectric projects on the western rivers, such as Kishanganga and Ratle, alleging violations of the treaty’s restrictions. These disputes have often escalated to neutral expert reviews or arbitration.
  • Geopolitical Strains: Terrorist attacks attributed to Pakistan-based groups, such as the 2016 Uri attack and 2019 Pulwama attack, have prompted calls in India to reconsider the treaty. In 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi famously remarked, “Blood and water cannot flow together,” signaling potential retaliation.
  • Climate Change: Reduced river flows due to glacial melting and erratic monsoons have strained the treaty’s framework, as both countries face water scarcity.
  • Legal Constraints: The treaty lacks an exit clause, meaning neither party can unilaterally abrogate it without violating international law. However, suspension or reinterpretation remains a possibility under certain conditions, such as a “fundamental change of circumstances” under the Vienna Convention.

Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (April 2025)

On April 22, 2025, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam’s Baisaran Valley, Jammu and Kashmir, killed 26 people, including 25 Indians and one Nepali citizen, and injured several others. The attack, attributed to the Pakistan-based group The Resistance Front, was one of the deadliest in the region since the 2019 Pulwama attack. India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, met on April 23, 2025, and announced a series of retaliatory measures, including the suspension of the IWT with immediate effect. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that the treaty would be “held in abeyance until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.”

Details of the Suspension

  • Rationale: India cited “cross-border linkages” of the Pahalgam attack, noting that it occurred despite recent progress in Jammu and Kashmir’s economic growth and democratic processes. The CCS viewed the attack as a deliberate attempt to destabilize the region.
  • Nature of Suspension: The treaty has not been abrogated but placed on temporary hold, meaning India is pausing its obligations without formally withdrawing. This allows India to explore options like altering water flow, building storage facilities on western rivers, or disregarding design restrictions on projects like the Kishanganga reservoir.
  • Other Measures: Alongside the suspension, India closed the Attari-Wagah border, expelled Pakistani diplomats, downgraded diplomatic ties, and ordered Pakistani nationals to leave India within 48 hours.

Implications for India

  • Strategic Leverage: Suspending the treaty gives India greater control over the western rivers, potentially allowing storage dams or increased water diversion to pressure Pakistan. Former Indus Commissioner P.K. Saxena noted that India can now bypass restrictions on reservoir flushing and project designs.
  • Hydropower Expansion: India can accelerate hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, boosting energy security and regional development.
  • Domestic Support: The move has garnered domestic support as a strong response to terrorism, aligning with sentiments like “blood and water cannot flow together.”
  • Risks: Unilateral actions could strain India’s international reputation, as the treaty involves the World Bank. Pakistan may seek arbitration or international intervention, though the treaty’s lack of an exit clause complicates legal challenges.

Implications for Pakistan

  • Water Security Threat: Pakistan relies on the western rivers for 80% of its irrigation, particularly in Punjab, and major cities like Karachi and Lahore. Suspension could disrupt agriculture, exacerbate water scarcity, and impact hydropower plants like Tarbela and Mangla.
  • Economic Impact: Agriculture, a backbone of Pakistan’s economy, could face severe losses, potentially destabilizing the country amidst existing economic challenges.
  • Diplomatic Fallout: Pakistan’s leadership, including Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, has argued that India cannot unilaterally suspend the treaty due to the World Bank’s involvement. Pakistan plans to convene a high-level meeting to formulate a response, possibly seeking international support.
  • Escalation Risk: Reduced water flow could heighten tensions, potentially leading to retaliatory actions or further destabilization in the region.

International and Legal Dimensions

  • World Bank’s Role: The World Bank, a signatory to the treaty, has urged both nations to adhere to the dispute resolution mechanism. However, its role is limited, and it cannot directly intervene in the suspension.
  • International Law: Former diplomats, like Pakistan’s Abdul Basit, argue that unilateral suspension violates the treaty’s legal framework. India counters that Pakistan’s support for terrorism constitutes a “fundamental change of circumstances” under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention, justifying suspension.
  • Global Reactions: World leaders, including those from the U.S. and Russia, have condemned the Pahalgam attack, expressing solidarity with India. However, the suspension’s long-term implications may draw scrutiny from water-scarce regions and international organizations.

Future Outlook

The suspension of the IWT marks a significant escalation in India-Pakistan relations, ending a 65-year period of water-sharing cooperation. While India’s move is a strategic response to terrorism, it raises complex challenges:

  • Short-Term: India may increase water use from the western rivers, impacting Pakistan’s agriculture and economy. Pakistan is likely to pursue diplomatic and legal avenues to challenge the suspension.
  • Long-Term: The treaty’s future depends on whether Pakistan addresses India’s concerns about terrorism. Climate change and water scarcity could further complicate bilateral negotiations.
  • Regional Stability: Escalation over water resources could exacerbate tensions in an already volatile region, necessitating international mediation.

Conclusion

The Indus Waters Treaty has been a remarkable example of cooperation between India and Pakistan, ensuring equitable water access despite decades of conflict. Its suspension on April 23, 2025, following the Pahalgam terrorist attack, reflects India’s intent to use water as a strategic tool to counter cross-border terrorism. While the move strengthens India’s position domestically and regionally, it risks escalating tensions with Pakistan and drawing international scrutiny. The treaty’s fate now hinges on diplomatic efforts, Pakistan’s response to terrorism allegations, and the global community’s role in mitigating a potential water crisis in South Asia.