A Region in Turmoil
On March 11, 2025, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) militants hijacked the Jaffar Express train near Quetta-Sibi, Pakistan, holding ~450 passengers hostage for 36 hours. The military’s rescue operation freed 346 hostages but left at least 21 civilians and 4 security personnel dead, though some reports suggest higher military losses. This attack highlights the escalating unrest in Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest yet poorest province. Covering 44% of the country’s landmass, Balochistan hosts 15 million people, 70% of whom are multidimensionally poor despite vast gas and mineral wealth. Why does this resource-rich region remain a hotbed of conflict?
A History of Grievances
Balochistan’s struggle began with the Khanate of Kalat, an autonomous state founded in 1666. British colonial rule divided the region, fostering tribal rivalries. In 1947, Kalat declared independence, backed by a treaty with Muhammad Ali Jinnah, but Pakistan annexed it in 1948, sparking rebellion. The 1955 One Unit policy, merging Balochistan into West Pakistan, deepened discontent. A 1958 uprising ended with executions, sowing distrust. The 1973–1977 insurgency saw 80,000 troops deployed, birthing the BLA. The 2006 killing of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti by Pakistani forces ignited the current wave of violence.
The Roots of Today’s Conflict
The Baloch nationalist movement is driven by three core issues:
- Economic Exclusion: Balochistan contributes just 3.7% to Pakistan’s GDP. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), especially the Gwadar port, is seen as displacing locals while jobs go to non-Baloch workers, though the government claims CPEC creates opportunities.
- Political Marginalization: With only 6% of National Assembly seats, Balochistan lacks influence. Nationalist leaders like Akhtar Mengal, who resigned in 2024 citing “anarchy,” face exclusion.
- Human Rights Concerns: Estimates of enforced disappearances since 2000 range from 2,752 (official) to 7,000 (activists), with cases like the 2023 killing of Balach Mola Bakhsh fueling outrage.
The BLA, now led by middle-class figures like Hyrbyair Marri, has escalated attacks, targeting security forces, CPEC projects, and Punjabis. In 2024, over 900 attacks, including a November Quetta railway station bombing killing 30+, claimed hundreds of lives. Pakistan’s $72 million counter-insurgency campaign in 2024, criticized for civilian casualties, defends it as counter-terrorism.
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Women-Led Resistance
A nonviolent movement, led by the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), has gained traction. Formed in 2020, the BYC, under Dr. Mahrang Baloch, a doctor whose brother was abducted, demands accountability for disappearances. In 2023, the BYC’s march over 1,000 miles to Islamabad, protesting Bakhsh’s death, drew thousands, including women defying conservative norms. The 2024 Baloch Raaji Muchi in Gwadar, starting July 28, protested CPEC displacement and disappearances, but security forces killed 3 and injured dozens.
Mahrang Baloch calls for justice through peaceful means, gaining global support via social media despite internet blackouts. Yet, Pakistan’s threat to ban the BYC as a “terrorist proxy” risks alienating activists.
A Volatile Present
Balochistan faces dire challenges: 70% poverty, limited education, and water scarcity. CPEC’s Gwadar port, leased to China for 40 years, fuels protests over land loss and demographic shifts from non-Baloch migration. Security worsened in 2024, with August attacks killing over 70, including 23 Punjabi workers. Pakistan accuses India and Afghanistan of backing the BLA, though evidence is limited, per analyst James Dobbins.
Politically, the 2009 Balochistan Package promised reforms but failed. A 2012 Gallup survey found 67% of Baloch favor autonomy, but recent violence may boost separatism. The government touts CPEC investments, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif pledging funds in 2024.
Can Peace Prevail?
Balochistan stands at a crossroads. The BLA’s militancy and BYC’s protests reflect a movement now urban and youth-driven. Internal divisions and Pakistan’s military approach hinder progress. Engaging leaders like Mahrang Baloch, addressing disappearances, and granting autonomy could weaken the BLA’s appeal. Without dialogue, analysts warn, Balochistan risks deeper conflict, impacting Pakistan and neighbors like China and Iran. Will Pakistan heed calls for justice, or will violence prevail? Share your thoughts below.