Pakistan is grappling with a deepening crisis that has sparked fears of civil war and, in the event of conflict with India, the potential fragmentation of the nation. As political turmoil, militancy, and ethnic tensions converge, analysts warn that Pakistan’s stability hangs in the balance. With India-Pakistan relations strained by a recent terrorist attack in Kashmir, The Interview Times examines whether Pakistan is on the verge of internal collapse or division.
Is Pakistan Sliding Toward Civil War?
Pakistan’s internal challenges are mounting, but the country is not currently in a civil war. A civil war requires sustained, organized armed conflict between groups within a nation, a threshold Pakistan has not crossed. However, the ingredients for instability are evident.
The ongoing clash between the military establishment and supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has fractured the political landscape. The judiciary’s defiance of military-backed governance and favorable rulings for PTI have intensified tensions, with some describing the crisis as the worst since the 1971 war that birthed Bangladesh. Social media platforms like X buzz with warnings of “anarchy” if the military continues to suppress democratic processes, though such claims remain speculative.
Militancy is another growing threat. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has strengthened its foothold in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, running parallel courts and conducting patrols. In Balochistan, separatist groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) target security forces, while sectarian violence in Kurram District has claimed hundreds of lives. These conflicts, though serious, are localized and lack the cohesion to challenge the state broadly.
Ethnic grievances in Balochistan, Sindh, and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) persist, but they fall short of the scale seen in 1971. The Pakistani military, despite declining public support, remains a unifying force, and analyst Anatol Lieven notes that familial and tribal bonds help the country “muddle through” crises. While the risk of escalation exists, Pakistan’s institutional resilience suggests a civil war is not imminent.
Could a War with India Fragment Pakistan?
Tensions with India have flared following a deadly April 2025 terrorist attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir, which killed 26 tourists. India’s response—downgrading diplomatic ties, revoking visas, and threatening to suspend the Indus Water Treaty—has raised the specter of war. Pakistan called the treaty threat an “act of war,” escalating rhetoric on both sides.
The 1971 war, which saw East Pakistan become Bangladesh, is a historical precedent for territorial division. India’s support for Bengali rebels and military intervention were decisive then, but replicating that outcome today is unlikely. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, with a first-strike doctrine, deters large-scale Indian aggression. A 2022 study estimated that a nuclear war could cause over 2 billion indirect global deaths, a risk both nations recognize.
Pakistan’s internal vulnerabilities—ethnic tensions and separatist movements—could theoretically be exploited in a war. However, movements in Balochistan or Sindh lack the organization or external backing seen in 1971. India’s military, stretched across borders with China and Pakistan, is unlikely to pursue a prolonged occupation to fragment Pakistan, especially given nuclear risks and international pressure from powers like the U.S.
Current dynamics suggest limited skirmishes, like those in 2016 and 2019, are more probable than a war leading to division. Pakistan’s military, with 19 infantry divisions and significant equipment, remains formidable. Global mediation would likely prevent escalation, and the Indus Water Treaty’s resilience through past conflicts indicates it may weather this crisis.
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What Lies Ahead?
Pakistan’s path forward is fraught with challenges. The military’s handling of the political crisis, rising militancy, and regional tensions will determine whether the country stabilizes or slides further into chaos. With India, both nations must navigate a delicate balance to avoid catastrophic escalation.
Observers should monitor Kashmir, water-sharing disputes, and militant activities, as these could serve as flashpoints. For now, Pakistan’s institutional strength and nuclear deterrence make civil war or division unlikely, but the nation remains at a critical juncture.
Stay tuned to The Interview Times for updates on this developing story.