The terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which claimed 26 lives, has escalated tensions between India and Pakistan to a critical juncture. The attack, attributed to The Resistance Front (TRF), a shadow group of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), has prompted severe diplomatic and military responses from India, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and heightened military activity along the Line of Control (LoC). Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Asif, has warned of the potential for “all-out war,” raising fears of a nuclear confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. This explainer examines the likelihood of a nuclear war, the nuclear and military capabilities of both nations, and the factors that could either escalate or de-escalate the crisis.
The Pahalgam Attack and Its Aftermath
On April 22, 2025, terrorists opened fire on tourists in Baisaran Meadow, Pahalgam, killing 26 people, mostly Indian civilians. The attack, one of the deadliest in the Kashmir Valley in recent years, was claimed by TRF, with India alleging Pakistani military and intelligence support—a charge Pakistan denies. India’s response has been swift and multifaceted:
- Diplomatic Measures: India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, downgraded diplomatic ties, expelled Pakistani military attaches, and closed the Attari border post.
- Military Posturing: Indian forces retaliated to Pakistani firing along the LoC, and the Indian Army chief, General Upendra Dwivedi, reviewed security in the region.
- Domestic Actions: The houses of suspected local militants were demolished, and a reward was offered for information on the attackers.
Pakistan, in retaliation, closed its airspace to Indian airlines, paused a canal irrigation project, and declared India’s treaty suspension an “act of war.” Both nations have exchanged heated rhetoric, with Pakistan’s defense minister accusing India of staging the attack and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowing to “punish” the perpetrators “beyond their imagination.”
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Nuclear Capabilities: India vs. Pakistan
Both India and Pakistan possess nuclear arsenals, making any escalation a global concern. Here’s a comparative analysis of their nuclear and military strengths:
India’s Nuclear and Military Power
- Nuclear Arsenal: India is estimated to have 172 nuclear warheads, slightly surpassing Pakistan’s count for the first time in 25 years. Yields range from 12 to 40 kilotons, capable of devastating urban centers.
- Delivery Systems: India’s arsenal includes advanced ballistic missiles like the Agni-5 (with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs), Agni-Prime, and K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). These systems enhance India’s second-strike capability and deterrence.
- Military Strength: India boasts the world’s fourth most powerful military, with 1.46 million active troops, 1.15 million reserves, 2.5 million paramilitary personnel, and an annual recruitment of 2.39 million. Its defense budget is approximately ₹6.5 lakh crore (around $78 billion).
- Strategic Advantage: India’s larger economy and infrastructure provide greater resilience to sustain prolonged conflicts. Its nuclear doctrine emphasizes “no first use” but promises “massive retaliation” to any nuclear attack.
Pakistan’s Nuclear and Military Power
- Nuclear Arsenal: Pakistan possesses approximately 170 nuclear warheads with yields of 5–40 kilotons. Its arsenal is designed to target Indian cities and military sites, with a potential to kill millions if 20–40 warheads strike 10–20 urban centers.
- Delivery Systems: Pakistan’s missiles, such as the Shaheen-III and Ghauri, can reach most of India. Its tactical nuclear weapons (e.g., Nasr) are intended for battlefield use, lowering the threshold for nuclear escalation.
- Military Strength: Pakistan has 0.65 million active troops, 0.5 million reserves, and a smaller defense budget compared to India. Its military is heavily focused on countering India, with significant investments in asymmetric warfare, including support for militant groups.
- Strategic Posture: Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is ambiguous, with a lower threshold for nuclear use, especially in response to conventional military setbacks. This “first-use” policy aims to deter India’s superior conventional forces.
Comparative Assessment
India holds an edge in nuclear warhead numbers, delivery system sophistication, and conventional military strength. Its larger economy and global diplomatic clout provide strategic depth. Pakistan, however, relies on its nuclear arsenal and tactical weapons to offset India’s conventional superiority, creating a delicate balance of deterrence. A Princeton University study estimates that a full-scale nuclear exchange could kill 50–125 million people, underscoring the catastrophic stakes.
Can a Nuclear War Happen?
Factors Driving Escalation
- Historical Rivalries: India and Pakistan have fought three wars and a limited conflict over Kashmir since 1947. The Pahalgam attack, seen as a Pakistani proxy action, rekindles fears of retaliation, as seen after the 2019 Pulwama attack, which led to Indian airstrikes in Balakot.
- Rhetoric and Public Pressure: Modi’s promise to “break the backbone” of terrorism and Pakistan’s warnings of “all-out war” fuel domestic expectations for strong action, limiting diplomatic off-ramps.
- Military Escalation: Firing along the LoC and Pakistan’s airspace closure signal heightened readiness. Any miscalculation—such as a cross-border strike hitting a sensitive target—could spiral into broader conflict.
- Nuclear Posturing: Pakistan’s lower nuclear threshold and tactical weapons increase the risk of escalation if it perceives an existential threat. India’s massive retaliation doctrine ensures mutual destruction in such a scenario.
Factors Mitigating Nuclear War
- Mutual Deterrence: Both nations understand the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war. Historical crises, like the 1999 Kargil conflict, saw restraint despite nuclear capabilities.
- International Pressure: Global powers, including the US, EU, and UN, are urging restraint. US intelligence reports suggest a low likelihood of nuclear use, despite the risks posed by modern missile systems. The US, UK, and Israel have expressed solidarity with India, while the UN calls for de-escalation.
- Economic Constraints: Pakistan’s economic fragility limits its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict. India, while economically stronger, faces domestic and global economic repercussions from escalation.
- Diplomatic Channels: Despite severed ties, backchannels may still operate. Past crises have been defused through quiet diplomacy, and the Kartarpur Corridor’s continued operation suggests some avenues remain open.
Analysis: Likelihood and Scenarios
While the current crisis is severe, a nuclear war remains unlikely due to mutual deterrence and international pressure. However, the risk is not zero. Potential scenarios include:
- Limited Conventional Conflict: India may conduct surgical strikes or targeted operations against militant bases in Pakistan, as seen in 2016 and 2019. Pakistan could respond with conventional or tactical nuclear strikes if it perceives a threat to its sovereignty.
- Diplomatic Standoff: Both sides may continue punitive measures (e.g., treaty suspensions, airspace closures) without direct military engagement, allowing tensions to simmer but avoiding war.
- Miscalculation: An unintended escalation—such as a strike hitting a nuclear facility or civilian population—could trigger a rapid spiral toward nuclear use, especially given Pakistan’s first-use policy.
Former Indian Air Chief Arup Raha’s assertion that nuclear powers can engage in conventional warfare, citing past strikes, suggests India may favor limited retaliation over nuclear escalation. However, Pakistan’s defense minister’s admission of past terrorist support, while blaming the West, complicates its denials and fuels India’s resolve.
Conclusion
The Pahalgam attack has pushed India-Pakistan relations to their lowest point in years, with nuclear war a distant but alarming possibility. India’s military and economic superiority contrasts with Pakistan’s reliance on nuclear deterrence and asymmetric tactics. While mutual destruction and global intervention make nuclear war improbable, the risk of miscalculation looms large. Both nations must prioritize de-escalation through backchannel diplomacy and international mediation to prevent a catastrophe that could claim millions of lives. For now, the world watches anxiously as these nuclear rivals navigate this perilous moment.