New Delhi | January 04, 2026, 6:31 p.m. IST
The world awoke to dramatic news on January 3, 2026: US special forces, in a daring pre-dawn operation codenamed “Absolute Resolve,” conducted airstrikes on military targets in Caracas and captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
President Donald Trump announced the success, stating the US would temporarily “run” the country to facilitate a transition, while Maduro faces drug-trafficking charges in New York.
This bold intervention echoing historical US actions in Latin America has triggered widespread international condemnation, oil market jitters, and questions about global stability.
For India, a nation importing over 85% of its crude oil needs, the key concern is energy security: Could disruptions in Venezuela spike prices and hit Indian consumers?
International Outcry: Condemnation Dominates
The operation has drawn sharp criticism from major powers and regional neighbours, who view it as a violation of sovereignty and international law.
Russia labeled it an “act of armed aggression” with unfounded pretexts, reaffirming solidarity with Venezuela and calling for a UN Security Council meeting.
China expressed deep shock, condemning the “hegemonic behaviour” as a threat to Latin American peace and urging the US to respect sovereignty.
Latin American leaders were equally vocal: Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called it a “serious affront” crossing an “unacceptable line,” while Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, and Chile rejected the intervention, emphasizing dialogue over force. Iran termed it a “flagrant violation,” and the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed alarm, warning of a “dangerous precedent.”
Some voices were more nuanced, France’s Emmanuel Macron noted Venezuelans could “rejoice” at Maduro’s fall but stressed UN Charter respect, while others, like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, supported a democratic transition without endorsing military means.
India’s response has been measured: The Ministry of External Affairs issued a travel advisory urging citizens to avoid non-essential trips to Venezuela and exercise caution, prioritizing the safety of the small Indian community there.
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Oil Market Volatility: Short-Term Spike, Long-Term Uncertainty
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves over 300 billion barrels, but years of mismanagement and sanctions have slashed output to around 1 million barrels per day (bpd), a fraction of its peak.
Early reports indicate no damage to oil infrastructure, limiting immediate supply disruptions. Analysts predict modest short-term price impacts unless unrest escalates.
As of January 4, Brent crude hovers around $61 per barrel and WTI near $57-58, after steep 2025 declines amid global surpluses. Markets anticipate a possible gap-up opening due to geopolitical risk premiums, but experts like those at Rapidan Energy and Rystad see the event as potentially bearish long-term: A stable, pro-US Venezuela could lift sanctions, attract investment, and boost output to 2-3 million bpd, easing global supplies.
OPEC+ is expected to pause production hikes in Q1 2026, adding to oversupply pressures.
Impact on India: Largely Insulated, But Vigilant
India’s exposure to Venezuelan oil has dwindled sharply since 2019 US sanctions. Imports fell to just $255 million in crude (about 0.3% of total) in 2024-25, down over 80% from prior years, per Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) data. Russian discounted crude now dominates nearly 50% of India’s imports, providing a robust buffer.
Think tanks like GTRI assert the crisis will have “negligible” direct impact on India’s economy or energy security, given low trade volumes and diversification efforts.
However, any broad oil price surge from escalation or broader tensions could indirectly affect India. Higher crude would inflate import bills, fuel inflation, and raise petrol/diesel costs for households and transport.
Indian refiners, calibrated for heavy crudes like Venezuela’s, remain on alert, but the “surplus shield” from alternatives mitigates risks.
Longer-term, increased Venezuelan supply under new management could benefit importers like India by pressuring prices downward.
As global powers navigate this fallout, India continues its pragmatic diplomacy balancing relations while prioritizing affordable energy. The Venezuela episode underscores the fragility of global supplies, reinforcing New Delhi’s push for diversification and domestic production.
In a volatile world, energy security remains India’s quiet priority.
